Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th US president on January 20 marks the beginning of four potentially unpredictable years for American — if not global — investment and trade. 

Knowing that fDi’s worldwide readership has diverse takeaways from Mr Trump’s first term and 2024 campaign promises, we’ve spent the past month gathering your predictions for what lies ahead as he returns to the White House. 

The responses are telling. According to readers, an uptick in US foreign direct investment (FDI) and Elon Musk’s influence on more than just cost-cutting are on the cards, while the president’s tariff threats will be part of his broader strategy as a “super negotiator”. 

More inbound, less outbound

The majority (70%) of respondents expect Mr Trump’s policies to increase inbound FDI, but the majority within that camp expect only a moderate uptick. Lower taxes, higher tariffs and the promise of deregulation are the most commonly cited drivers, but this will be tempered by Trump’s “volatility”, as one respondent notes. 

Investors’ desire for predictability is one reason why 19% of respondents expect inbound FDI to decrease, as “the incoming administration is anything but predictable,” says Andreas Waldkirch in the US. Another sceptic notes that Mr Trump’s “hostility to foreign business interests (other than his own) is significant”. 

There is little consensus on his effect on outbound FDI. One-third of respondents expect a slight decrease, while 28% predict no impact at all. This reflects the broad alignment between Mr Trump and current president Joe Biden on reshoring and revitalising US industry, with less emphasis on spreading influence abroad.

For the 22% expecting outbound FDI to increase, preservation of foreign market access in case of retaliation against Mr Trump’s trade policies is a big factor. “US companies will have to invest more abroad to avoid the reciprocal tariffs on their exports that Trump will trigger,” says Charlie Robertson in the UK. 

China and tariffs

In one of his trademark policies, Mr Trump has promised to hike tariffs against China to 60%, with a 20% tariff for all other countries. However, just 7% of respondents expect the president to follow through on this threat. 

Most (54%) of them expect tariffs on just a handful of countries, with the president using them as a bargaining tool. “With his quintessential business-like thinking, there would most likely be negotiations before tariffs are imposed,” says Adrian Tan in Singapore. Others note his “tariff war will focus on selected products and services”.  

Tariffs will continue to be a major determinant of Mr Trump’s relations with Beijing. After overseeing the start of the US–China trade war in his first presidential term, relations failed to improve under Mr Biden amid his China policymaking blitz. 

More than three-quarters of you expect things to further deteriorate, with just 22% of respondents expecting US–Sino relations to improve over the next four years. “Trump is US-centric and will not play nice … but China likely has more weight economically and can turn their back easier,” notes one respondent who expects relations to ‘drastically worsen’.

Clean-tech bros and incentives 

Some believe Mr Trump’s China policy depends on whether he is influenced more by his advisor Elon Musk — given his huge operations in the country — or China hawks in his cabinet. 

But readers are pessimistic about the Trump–Musk bromance, with 43% expecting it to be over by mid-year. Only 22% predict it will last the length of this White House term, with clashing egos and Mr Musk’s “uncompromising” nature being the likely cause of relationship breakdown.

Several respondents also link the future of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives to the longevity of the Musk–Trump relationship. On balance, the majority (56%) view is that IRA incentives will continue to run their course with no new green subsidies being offered.

However, 37% are more pessimistic, expecting the IRA to be rolled back. “Trump has sold his soul to the petrochemical industry” and is “captive to conventional energy interests”, readers tell us. 

Country and sector winners

Indeed, 30% of respondents expect traditional energy to be among the biggest industry winners under the Trump presidency. The next most-cited industry is manufacturing, tipped to benefit from deregulation, followed by aerospace and defence given the president’s desire “to strengthen US power”, one reader explains. 

As for countries to reap trade and investment benefits under Mr Trump, the biggest winners are tipped to be Mexico and India. The former has the assurance of the US–Mexico–Canada trade agreement, although its scheduled renegotiation in 2026 engenders risks, and continued tariff-jumping by Chinese firms. India will be buoyed by the “fraternal spirit” between Mr Trump and Narendra Modi, surmises one respondent. 

Tied in third place are Canada and Vietnam, which readers expect to benefit from firms diversifying production away from China to avoid US tariffs. 

A more detailed analysis of the survey results will be in our next magazine, published online on 13 February.

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